Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Luke Graham remove | Ryan Astley remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 24 |
| Position | Centre-back | Centre-back |
| Club · league | Dundee FC · Scottish Premiership | Dundee FC · Scottish Premiership |
| League strength | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1121 | 1121 |
| League minutes | 2856 (96%) | 2637 (89%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 12 | 15 |
| Market value | €2.0M | €600k |
| Estimated acquisition | €1.2M – €3.1M | €195k – €797k |
| Model value | €332k – €892k | €268k – €984k |
| Projected value (24m) | €1.1M – €5.4M | €387k – €866k |
| Bargain Index | 67/100 | 79/100 |
| Development | High | Low |
| Breakout probability | 28% | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.1M Model value (performance-implied)€332k – €892k Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €5.4M Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€195k – €797k Model value (performance-implied)€268k – €984k Projected value (24 months)€387k – €866k Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Luke Graham and Ryan Astley
- Graham is 2 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Astley is estimated to cost far less (€438k vs €2.0M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Astley (Bargain Index 79 vs 67) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Graham High, Astley Moderate.