Luke Graham
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luke Graham's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-5.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.0M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2856 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1121
- Opponent strength
- 1223
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €5.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -29% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 32 | 2856 | 96% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1223 | 1121 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1155 | 1122 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 199 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Montrose FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Holm Superliga · 2022 | 22 | €800k | €12.0M | rose |
| Arda Kızıldağ Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
| Apostolos Diamantis Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Arthur Zagré Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Orest Lebedenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Bünyamin Balcı Super Lig · 2021 | 21 | €3.4M | €4.0M | flat |
| Frederik Möller Superliga · 2017 | 24 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Hamari Traoré Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €900k | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2025 | Falkirk | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €125k |
| 4 Feb 2025 | Dundee FC | Falkirk | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Falkirk | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €125k |
| 20 Sept 2024 | Dundee FC | Falkirk | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Dundee Reserves | Dundee FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Montrose | Dundee Reserves | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Dundee Reserves | Montrose | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2023 | Albion Rovers | Dundee Reserves | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Dundee Reserves | Albion Rovers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Dundee U18 | Dundee Reserves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2022 | Lochee | Dundee U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dundee U18 | Lochee | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.