Ryan Astley
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ryan Astley's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €438k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2637 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1121
- Opponent strength
- 1230
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €387k – €866k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -48% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 31 | 2637 | 89% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1230 | 1121 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 21 | 1754 | 59% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1275 | 1122 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 1 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1229 | 1153 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Putrya Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Carles Soria Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Casper Højer Superliga · 2019 | 25 | €700k | €2.5M | rose |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Epaminondas Pantelakis Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Jonas Bager Superliga · 2019 | 23 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Yuriy Romanyuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Nikolaos Korovesis Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €450k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2024 | Everton U21 | Dundee FC | Unknown | €600k |
| 31 May 2023 | Accrington | Everton U21 | Free / loan | €600k |
| 13 Jul 2022 | Everton U21 | Accrington | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Everton U18 | Everton U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Everton Youth | Everton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.