Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Otávio remove | Luc De Fougerolles remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 20 | 20 |
| Position | Centre-back | Centre-back |
| Club · league | CF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal | FCV Dender EH · Jupiler Pro League |
| League strength | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1195 | 1207 |
| League minutes | 1356 (44%) | 1460 (54%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 9 | 9 |
| Market value | €1.5M | €1.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €1.3M – €3.6M | €582k – €3.6M |
| Model value | €285k – €860k | €376k – €1.7M |
| Projected value (24m) | €933k – €5.4M | €632k – €4.0M |
| Bargain Index | 28/100 | 57/100 |
| Development | High | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | 29% | 21% |
| Risk | High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€1.3M – €3.6M Model value (performance-implied)€285k – €860k Projected value (24 months)€933k – €5.4M Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€582k – €3.6M Model value (performance-implied)€376k – €1.7M Projected value (24 months)€632k – €4.0M Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Otávio and Luc De Fougerolles
- Fougerolles is estimated to cost far less (€1.2M vs €2.3M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Fougerolles (Bargain Index 57 vs 28) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.