Otávio

The model rates Otávio's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-5.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1356 (44% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.07

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.10

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

9 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1195

Opponent strength

1366

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

High

Trajectory

insufficient

Breakout probability

29%

Resale range (24m)

€933k – €5.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -25% to +27%).

• ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1356 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

66 (DEF)

Relative output kept

57%–168%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

76%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.