Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Davie Selke remove | Koki Ogawa remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 28 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Basaksehir FK · Super Lig | NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie |
| League strength | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1357 | 1362 |
| League minutes | 1204 (39%) | 1274 (42%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.90 | 0.85 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 49 | 33 |
| Market value | €2.8M | €2.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €685k – €2.4M | €558k – €1.8M |
| Model value | €609k – €2.1M | €610k – €1.8M |
| Projected value (24m) | €639k – €2.3M | €678k – €2.1M |
| Bargain Index | 41/100 | 75/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Very High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€685k – €2.4M Model value (performance-implied)€609k – €2.1M Projected value (24 months)€639k – €2.3M Dashed line: current market value (€2.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€558k – €1.8M Model value (performance-implied)€610k – €1.8M Projected value (24 months)€678k – €2.1M Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Davie Selke and Koki Ogawa
- Ogawa is 3 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Selke has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.65 vs 0.56 per 90).
- On value for money the model prefers Ogawa (Bargain Index 75 vs 41) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Selke Very High, Ogawa High.