Koki Ogawa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Koki Ogawa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1274 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €744k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1274 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.85
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1283
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €678k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -74% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1274 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 26 | 1274 | 42% | 8 | 4 | 0.85 | 0.56 | 1283 | 1362 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 24 | 1605 | 52% | 7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 1269 | 1320 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 31 | 2208 | 72% | 11 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 1347 | 1336 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 101 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 2 | 39 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 159 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 413 | 4 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Fischer Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Famara Diédhiou Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €500k | fell |
| Mame Thiam Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.4M | flat |
| Mortadha Ben Ouanes Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
| Ohi Omoijuanfo Superliga · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €450k | fell |
| Nélson Oliveira Super League 1 · 2020 | 29 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
| Fernando Andrade Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Britt Assombalonga Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €3.4M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Yokohama FC | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | NEC Nijmegen | Yokohama FC | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Yokohama FC | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 9 Jan 2022 | Júbilo Iwata | Yokohama FC | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Mito HollyHock | Júbilo Iwata | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Jul 2019 | Júbilo Iwata | Mito HollyHock | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Toko Gakuen HS | Júbilo Iwata | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.