Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Bruno Fernandes remove | Brenden Aaronson remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 25 |
| Position | Attacking midfielder | Attacking midfielder |
| Club · league | Manchester United · Premier League | Leeds United · Premier League |
| League strength | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1715 | 1521 |
| League minutes | 3068 (90%) | 2470 (72%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.88 | 0.33 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.75 | 0.49 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 100 | 85 |
| Market value | €35.0M | €22.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €10.7M – €28.1M | €9.9M – €23.3M |
| Model value | €28.8M – €77.4M | €8.4M – €31.9M |
| Projected value (24m) | €9.1M – €23.2M | €12.7M – €31.1M |
| Bargain Index | 19/100 | 94/100 |
| Development | Low | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Moderate | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€10.7M – €28.1M Model value (performance-implied)€28.8M – €77.4M Projected value (24 months)€9.1M – €23.2M Dashed line: current market value (€35.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€9.9M – €23.3M Model value (performance-implied)€8.4M – €31.9M Projected value (24 months)€12.7M – €31.1M Dashed line: current market value (€22.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Bruno Fernandes and Brenden Aaronson
- Aaronson is 6 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Fernandes has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.75 vs 0.49 per 90).
- Fernandes was used far more by the club (90% of minutes vs 72%).
- On value for money the model prefers Aaronson (Bargain Index 94 vs 19) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Fernandes Moderate, Aaronson Low.