Brenden Aaronson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brenden Aaronson's performance-implied value at EUR 8.4M-31.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.9M-23.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.7M-31.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.21x the positional average in the league (2470 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €13.2M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2470 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1598
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.7M – €31.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR +0% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | AM | 37 | 2470 | 72% | 4 | 5 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 1598 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 1263 | 41% | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 1521 | 1431 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | AM | 36 | 2383 | 70% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 1569 | 1418 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 4 | 221 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | United States | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 6 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 1696 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 4 | 160 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalvin Phillips Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €30.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Jefferson Lerma Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Andreas Pereira Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Leandro Trossard Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €17.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Pablo Fornals Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €18.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Vitaly Janelt Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Ignacio Camacho Laliga · 2015 | 25 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Union Berlin | Leeds | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Leeds | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Salzburg | Leeds | €32.8M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Philadelphia | Salzburg | €12.7M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Ph. Union Acad. | Philadelphia | Unknown | €150k |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Bethlehem Steel | Ph. Union Acad. | Free / loan | €150k |
| 16 Mar 2018 | Ph. Union Acad. | Bethlehem Steel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Nov 2017 | Bethlehem Steel | Ph. Union Acad. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Jul 2017 | Ph. Union Acad. | Bethlehem Steel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.