Bruno Fernandes

32 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM) · Portugal
Manchester United · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
19/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€35.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€10.7M – €28.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€28.8M – €77.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€9.1M – €23.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€771k – €66.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€10.7M – €28.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€28.8M – €77.4M
Projected value (24 months)€9.1M – €23.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€35.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Bruno Fernandes's performance-implied value at EUR 28.8M-77.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.7M-28.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.1M-23.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.85x the positional average in the league (3068 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 19

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite99.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €14.3M vs market €35.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-63% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €90.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3068 (90% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.88
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.75
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
100 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1715
Opponent strength
1604
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€9.1M – €23.2M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); relative output up 55% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -66% to -51%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueAM35306890%9210.880.75160417151.30
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueAM36302388%8110.570.47157016031.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueAM35312091%1080.520.39156815941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueAM37332097%880.430.34156416991.23
2021/22Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueAM36311891%1060.460.35156516091.17
2020/21Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueAM37310991%18110.840.57155117411.19
2019/20Sporting CPLiga PortugalAM17153050%870.880.55137014920.59
2019/20Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueAM14119335%871.130.77157517201.14
2018/19Sporting CPLiga PortugalAM33294296%20131.010.57135816340.65
2017/18Sporting CPLiga PortugalCM33280792%1180.610.32133816050.64
2016/17UC SampdoriaSerie AAM33172350%520.370.36147214140.88
2015/16Udinese CalcioSerie ACM31212062%340.300.37149713580.95
2014/15Udinese CalcioSerie AAM31160647%320.280.35147213700.93
2013/14Udinese CalcioSerie AAM24155445%460.580.57149514190.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupPortugal327001—
2025/26Fa CupManchester United19001—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United141281741567
2024/25Fa CupManchester United333021—
2024/25Community ShieldManchester United190011893
2023/24Fa CupManchester United660033—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United6540221623
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United11866141578
2022/23Fa CupManchester United652932—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United7520071653
2021/22Fa CupManchester United220501—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United9748541595
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United6439411644
2020/21Fa CupManchester United39710—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueSporting CP5450531546
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United5362311589
2019/20Fa CupManchester United327710—
2019/20Supercup Candido De OliveiraSporting CP190001683
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueSporting CP8703311519
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueSporting CP6568341602
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueSporting CP6538111725
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingSporting CP2112021474
2016/17Italy CupUC Sampdoria212201—
2015/16Italy CupUdinese Calcio218000—
2014/15Italy CupUdinese Calcio328311—
2013/14Italy CupUdinese Calcio416000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dani Parejo
Laliga · 2019
30€30.0M€10.0Mfell
Yaya Touré
Premier League · 2014
31€30.0M€20.0Mfell
Casemiro
Laliga · 2021
29€70.0M€40.0Mfell
Axel Witsel
Bundesliga · 2020
31€21.5M€4.0Mfell
Santi Cazorla
Premier League · 2015
31€26.0M€12.0Mfell
David Silva
Premier League · 2018
32€30.0M€12.0Mfell
Steven Gerrard
Premier League · 2013
33€11.5M€4.0Mfell
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Premier League · 2023
28€45.0M€20.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
29 Jan 2020SportingMan Utd€65.0M€60.0M
2 Jul 2017SampdoriaSporting€9.7M€7.5M
1 Jul 2017UdineseSampdoria€6.0M€7.5M
30 Jun 2017SampdoriaUdineseFree / loan€7.5M
16 Aug 2016UdineseSampdoriaFree / loan€6.5M
1 Jul 2013NovaraUdinese€2.5M€3.5M
27 Aug 2012Boavista Y19Novara€40kData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Boavista U17Boavista Y19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Boavista U15Boavista U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Boavista CJBoavista U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Infesta For.Boavista CJUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.