Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Gelson Martins remove | Gil Dias remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 29 |
| Position | Right winger | Right winger |
| Club · league | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios · Super League 1 | FC Famalicão · Liga Portugal |
| League strength | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1550 | 1406 |
| League minutes | 1285 (55%) | 2507 (82%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 70 | 59 |
| Market value | €2.5M | €2.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €846k – €2.5M | €666k – €1.6M |
| Model value | €1.6M – €7.3M | €1.7M – €5.2M |
| Projected value (24m) | €588k – €1.6M | €870k – €2.0M |
| Bargain Index | 13/100 | 88/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€846k – €2.5M Model value (performance-implied)€1.6M – €7.3M Projected value (24 months)€588k – €1.6M Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€666k – €1.6M Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €5.2M Projected value (24 months)€870k – €2.0M Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Gelson Martins and Gil Dias
- Dias plays in a stronger league (0.58 vs 0.42); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- Dias has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.41 vs 0.18 per 90).
- Dias was used far more by the club (82% of minutes vs 55%).
- Dias is estimated to cost far less (€888k vs €1.4M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Dias (Bargain Index 88 vs 13) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Martins High, Dias Moderate.