Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Gauthier Hein remove | João Carvalho remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 29 |
| Position | Attacking midfielder | Attacking midfielder |
| Club · league | FC Metz · Ligue 1 | GD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal |
| League strength | 0.88 | 0.58 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1225 | 1305 |
| League minutes | 2355 (77%) | 2798 (91%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 61 | 56 |
| Market value | €5.0M | €5.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €2.0M – €4.8M | €1.6M – €4.0M |
| Model value | €1.2M – €4.1M | €1.1M – €4.0M |
| Projected value (24m) | €1.5M – €3.5M | €1.9M – €4.7M |
| Bargain Index | 12/100 | 58/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Low | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€2.0M – €4.8M Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €4.1M Projected value (24 months)€1.5M – €3.5M Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€1.6M – €4.0M Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €4.0M Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €4.7M Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Gauthier Hein and João Carvalho
- Hein plays in a stronger league (0.88 vs 0.58); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- Hein has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.76 vs 0.62 per 90).
- Carvalho is estimated to cost far less (€2.1M vs €3.3M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Carvalho (Bargain Index 58 vs 12) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Hein Low, Carvalho Moderate.