Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Leon Bailey remove | Jacob Murphy remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 31 |
| Position | Right winger | Right winger |
| Club · league | Aston Villa · Premier League | Newcastle United · Premier League |
| League strength | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1697 | 1631 |
| League minutes | 634 (19%) | 1620 (47%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 88 | 94 |
| Market value | €14.0M | €12.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €5.0M – €13.1M | €3.9M – €10.7M |
| Model value | €15.7M – €21.6M | €13.1M – €25.5M |
| Projected value (24m) | €3.7M – €9.6M | €2.6M – €6.0M |
| Bargain Index | No index | 11/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | High |
| Data confidence | Low | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€5.0M – €13.1M Model value (performance-implied)€15.7M – €21.6M Projected value (24 months)€3.7M – €9.6M Dashed line: current market value (€14.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€3.9M – €10.7M Model value (performance-implied)€13.1M – €25.5M Projected value (24 months)€2.6M – €6.0M Dashed line: current market value (€12.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Leon Bailey and Jacob Murphy
- Bailey is 2 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Murphy was used far more by the club (47% of minutes vs 19%).