Leon Bailey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leon Bailey's performance-implied value at EUR 15.7M-21.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-13.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-9.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (634 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 87.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €6.6M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 634 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1697
- Opponent strength
- 1634
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €9.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -49% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 634 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RW | 13 | 452 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 1634 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RW | 7 | 182 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1506 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RW | 24 | 1144 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 1542 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RW | 35 | 2076 | 61% | 10 | 9 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 1562 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RW | 33 | 1984 | 58% | 4 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 1572 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RW | 18 | 755 | 22% | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 1574 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RW | 30 | 2144 | 70% | 9 | 9 | 0.76 | 0.43 | 1523 | 1563 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 22 | 1092 | 36% | 5 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 1546 | 1654 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 29 | 1917 | 63% | 5 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 1519 | 1625 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 30 | 2221 | 73% | 9 | 6 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 1511 | 1569 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 19 | 1396 | 52% | 1 | 6 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 1340 | 1500 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 8 | 134 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 1516 | 1547 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 25 | 1704 | 63% | 4 | 7 | 0.58 | 0.42 | 1332 | 1400 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 80 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 3 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1467 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 5 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 8 | 530 | 1 | 1 | 1584 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 4 | 258 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 2 | 159 | 2 | 1 | 1226 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 377 | 3 | 2 | 1489 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 204 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 163 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 98 | 1 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 537 | 0 | 3 | 1486 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 303 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 532 | 4 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 6 | 529 | 3 | 3 | 1379 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1799 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Sturridge Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Paco Alcácer Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €9.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Chicharito Premier League · 2014 | 26 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Nicolas Pépé Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €25.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Erik Lamela Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €16.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Olivier Giroud Premier League · 2018 | 32 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Lucas Vázquez Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Danny Welbeck Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | Roma | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 20 Aug 2025 | Aston Villa | Roma | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 4 Aug 2021 | Leverkusen | Aston Villa | €32.0M | €35.0M |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Genk | Leverkusen | €16.7M | €12.5M |
| 12 Aug 2015 | Trencin U19 | Genk | €1.4M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | USK Anif Youth | Trencin U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Phoenix Acad. | USK Anif Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.