Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Maarten Paes remove | Ignacio de Arruabarrena remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 29 |
| Position | Goalkeeper | Goalkeeper |
| Club · league | Ajax Amsterdam · Eredivisie | FC Arouca · Liga Portugal |
| League strength | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1405 | 1310 |
| League minutes | 990 (32%) | 1440 (47%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 18 | 19 |
| Market value | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €517k – €2.5M | €294k – €1.1M |
| Model value | €500k – €1.1M | €367k – €1.3M |
| Projected value (24m) | €781k – €2.6M | €396k – €903k |
| Bargain Index | 69/100 | 50/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€517k – €2.5M Model value (performance-implied)€500k – €1.1M Projected value (24 months)€781k – €2.6M Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€294k – €1.1M Model value (performance-implied)€367k – €1.3M Projected value (24 months)€396k – €903k Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Maarten Paes and Ignacio de Arruabarrena
- Arruabarrena is estimated to cost far less (€643k vs €1.3M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Paes (Bargain Index 69 vs 50) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Paes High, Arruabarrena Moderate.