Maarten Paes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maarten Paes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 990 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €781k – €2.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -26% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 990 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 11 | 990 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1320 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2020/21 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | GK | 8 | 720 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1386 | 1411 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | GK | 18 | 1620 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1381 | 1418 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1258 | 1415 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammed Şengezer Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.7M | €3.5M | rose |
| Davy Roef Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Alireza Beiranvand Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Panagiotis Glykos Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Rodrigo Rey Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €1.3M | €1.2M | flat |
| László Köteles Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Tim Krul Eredivisie · 2017 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jacobo Sanz Super League 1 · 2014 | 31 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Dallas | Ajax | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Utrecht | Dallas | €1.0M | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Dallas | Utrecht | Free / loan | €900k |
| 20 Jan 2022 | Utrecht | Dallas | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Utrecht U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht U21 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | NEC U19 | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | NEC U17 | NEC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | VV Union Youth | NEC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.