Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ignacio de Arruabarrena's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €643k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1440 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1318
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €396k – €903k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -62% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1440 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | GK | 16 | 1440 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1318 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1388 | 1360 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | GK | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1414 | 1386 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Arouca | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1279 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergiy Pogorilyi Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €700k | €200k | fell |
| Ricardo Batista Liga Portugal · 2015 | 29 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Aleksandr Gutor Premier Liga · 2018 | 29 | €800k | €725k | flat |
| Renan Ribeiro Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Mikhail Levashov Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Olivier Werner Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 28 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Damir Kahriman Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Vitaliy Gudiev Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €700k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | Barcelona SC | Arouca | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 13 Feb 2025 | Al-Wehda | Barcelona SC | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Arouca | Al-Wehda | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Wanderers | Arouca | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Tacuarembó | Wanderers | Free / loan | €100k |
| 8 Feb 2018 | Wanderers | Tacuarembó | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Wanderers U19 | Wanderers | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.