Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Exequiel Palacios remove | Lewis Ferguson remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 26 |
| Position | Central midfielder | Central midfielder |
| Club · league | Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga | Bologna Football Club 1909 · Serie A |
| League strength | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1626 | 1523 |
| League minutes | 1097 (36%) | 1596 (47%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 81 | 77 |
| Market value | €25.0M | €14.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €12.8M – €26.5M | €6.7M – €14.7M |
| Model value | €6.8M – €15.1M | €5.3M – €15.9M |
| Projected value (24m) | €6.6M – €18.9M | €4.8M – €14.6M |
| Bargain Index | 4/100 | 25/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Moderate | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€12.8M – €26.5M Model value (performance-implied)€6.8M – €15.1M Projected value (24 months)€6.6M – €18.9M Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€6.7M – €14.7M Model value (performance-implied)€5.3M – €15.9M Projected value (24 months)€4.8M – €14.6M Dashed line: current market value (€14.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Exequiel Palacios and Lewis Ferguson
- Ferguson is estimated to cost far less (€11.7M vs €19.7M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Ferguson (Bargain Index 25 vs 4) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Palacios Moderate, Ferguson Low.