Lewis Ferguson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lewis Ferguson's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-15.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.7M-14.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.8M-14.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (1596 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.7M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1596 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1555
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.8M – €14.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -55% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1596 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 27 | 1596 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1555 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 16 | 980 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1501 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 31 | 2718 | 79% | 6 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 1482 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 32 | 2321 | 68% | 7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1480 | 1482 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 31 | 2781 | 94% | 9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 1317 | 1265 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 30 | 2661 | 90% | 8 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 1303 | 1336 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 28 | 2520 | 93% | 1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 1280 | 1362 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 29 | 2605 | 88% | 5 | 7 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 1292 | 1359 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Hamilton Academical FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 11 | 925 | 31% | 0 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 1291 | 1176 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 14 | 1065 | 0 | 0 | 1515 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Scotland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 5 | 289 | 0 | 0 | 1629 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 241 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 6 | 495 | 4 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | 1325 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 6 | 540 | 1 | 3 | 1390 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 390 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 6 | 517 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 1501 |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hamilton Academical FC | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Fulgini Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Amine Harit Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Sofyan Amrabat Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €30.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Valentino Lazaro Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Lassana Diarra Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €14.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Mario Götze Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €18.0M | €10.5M | fell |
| Joe Allen Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Matteo Pessina Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2022 | Aberdeen FC | Bologna | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hamilton Acad. | Aberdeen FC | €265k | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Hamilton A. U20 | Hamilton Acad. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hamilton A. U17 | Hamilton A. U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Rangers Youth | Hamilton A. U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.