Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Paul Nebel remove | Aimar Oroz remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 23 | 24 |
| Position | Attacking midfielder | Attacking midfielder |
| Club · league | 1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | CA Osasuna · Laliga |
| League strength | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1485 | 1427 |
| League minutes | 2078 (68%) | 2154 (63%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.30 | 0.08 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 79 | 76 |
| Market value | €18.0M | €7.5M |
| Estimated acquisition | €7.3M – €16.9M | €3.7M – €9.7M |
| Model value | €8.0M – €29.7M | €6.0M – €23.4M |
| Projected value (24m) | €8.5M – €28.0M | €3.2M – €9.5M |
| Bargain Index | 95/100 | 47/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Moderate | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€7.3M – €16.9M Model value (performance-implied)€8.0M – €29.7M Projected value (24 months)€8.5M – €28.0M Dashed line: current market value (€18.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€3.7M – €9.7M Model value (performance-implied)€6.0M – €23.4M Projected value (24 months)€3.2M – €9.5M Dashed line: current market value (€7.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Paul Nebel and Aimar Oroz
- Nebel has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.33 vs 0.23 per 90).
- On value for money the model prefers Nebel (Bargain Index 95 vs 47) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Nebel Moderate, Oroz Low.