Paul Nebel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paul Nebel's performance-implied value at EUR 8.0M-29.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.3M-16.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.5M-28.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (2078 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €9.7M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2078 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.5M – €28.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -40% to +50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 2078 | 68% | 5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1488 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 2349 | 77% | 10 | 6 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 1511 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 10 | 222 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 1537 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 4 | 48 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1485 | 1481 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1335 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 142 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner Bundesliga · 2022 | 23 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Wilfried Singo Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Lucas Tousart Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €16.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Moussa Sissoko Ligue 1 · 2013 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Denis Zakaria Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Jon Moncayola Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Farès Chaïbi Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Gaetano Castrovilli Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Karlsruher SC | Mainz | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Mainz | Karlsruher SC | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Mainz 05 U19 | Mainz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Mainz 05 Yth. | Mainz 05 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Offenbach Yth. | Mainz 05 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Klein-Karb. Yth. | Offenbach Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Nieder-M. Jgd. | Klein-Karb. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.