Aimar Oroz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aimar Oroz's performance-implied value at EUR 6.0M-23.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-9.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-9.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.57x the positional average in the league (2154 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.5M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2154 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €9.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -17% to +90%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | AM | 31 | 2154 | 63% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 1467 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | AM | 37 | 2983 | 87% | 5 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 1513 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | AM | 33 | 2350 | 69% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 1495 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | AM | 31 | 2022 | 59% | 3 | 6 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 1508 | 1455 | 0.98 |
| 2019/20 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | AM | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1398 | 1478 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 271 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 128 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CA Osasuna | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 7 | 536 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Westwood Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Dennis Praet Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €8.5M | €24.0M | rose |
| Pierre Lees-Melou Ligue 1 · 2019 | 26 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Vladimír Darida Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Soualiho Meïté Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €4.8M | €8.0M | rose |
| Maximilian Arnold Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €10.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Pepelu Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Osasuna B | CA Osasuna | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Osasuna U19 | Osasuna B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | CA Osasuna Yout | Osasuna U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.