Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Kristian Arnstad remove | Tobias Bech remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 24 |
| Position | Left winger | Right winger |
| Club · league | Aarhus GF · Superliga | Aarhus GF · Superliga |
| League strength | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1441 | 1441 |
| League minutes | 1728 (87%) | 1835 (93%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 45 | 44 |
| Market value | €6.0M | €4.5M |
| Estimated acquisition | €4.0M – €10.6M | €2.5M – €6.7M |
| Model value | €1.2M – €7.8M | €1.3M – €7.7M |
| Projected value (24m) | €3.4M – €12.0M | €2.6M – €8.9M |
| Bargain Index | 48/100 | 69/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Low |
| Breakout probability | 22% | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€4.0M – €10.6M Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €7.8M Projected value (24 months)€3.4M – €12.0M Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€2.5M – €6.7M Model value (performance-implied)€1.3M – €7.7M Projected value (24 months)€2.6M – €8.9M Dashed line: current market value (€4.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Kristian Arnstad and Tobias Bech
- Bech is estimated to cost far less (€4.0M vs €6.7M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Bech (Bargain Index 69 vs 48) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Arnstad High, Bech Moderate.