Kristian Arnstad
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristian Arnstad's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.0M-10.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-12.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (1728 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €6.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1728 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1441
- Opponent strength
- 1266
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €12.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts; team strength up (+108 Elo); league level up (+42 Elo); role change CM -> LW; relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +53% (IQR +12% to +85%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1728 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LW | 21 | 1728 | 87% | 9 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 1266 | 1441 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 14 | 899 | 45% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1270 | 1329 | 0.38 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 1 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1324 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 14 | 641 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1419 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 1258 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1320 | 1432 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 1 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1252 | 1459 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 2 | 116 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1519 | 1457 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 6 | 540 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 4 | 332 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 4 | 221 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Ponce Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €4.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Anders Dreyer Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Daan Rots Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jonas Wind Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €5.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Mathias Kvistgaarden Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Sébastien Haller Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €6.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Bruma Super Lig · 2017 | 23 | €11.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Michy Batshuayi Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2024 | RSC Anderlecht | Aarhus GF | €1.4M | €2.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Sept 2019 | Stabæk Yth. | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.