Tobias Bech
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tobias Bech's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-7.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-8.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1835 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.0M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1835 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.64
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1441
- Opponent strength
- 1253
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €8.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); role change ST -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -36% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | RW | 22 | 1835 | 93% | 10 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 1253 | 1441 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | ST | 22 | 1716 | 87% | 6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 1316 | 1329 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | RW | 22 | 1355 | 68% | 6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 1292 | 1356 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | RW | 3 | 60 | 3% | 2 | 0 | 3.00 | 0.67 | 1331 | 1327 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Viborg FF | Superliga | RW | 22 | 1349 | 68% | 2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 1282 | 1234 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 6 | 435 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 3 | 197 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 7 | 499 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Viborg FF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1311 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gue-sung Cho Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sébastien Haller Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €8.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Gyrano Kerk Eredivisie · 2021 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Pylyp Budkivskyi Premier Liga · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Dante Vanzeir Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Pep Biel Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Ayase Ueda Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Tobias Lauritsen Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Ingolstadt | Aarhus GF | €1.0M | €700k |
| 5 Aug 2022 | Viborg FF | FC Ingolstadt | €550k | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Viborg FF Youth | Viborg FF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.