Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Tiago Esgaio remove | Cláudio Winck remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 32 |
| Position | Right-back | Right-back |
| Club · league | FC Arouca · Liga Portugal | Kasimpasa · Super Lig |
| League strength | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1310 | 1203 |
| League minutes | 2464 (81%) | 2303 (75%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 47 | 38 |
| Market value | €1.0M | €800k |
| Estimated acquisition | €251k – €771k | €176k – €594k |
| Model value | €580k – €2.0M | €338k – €969k |
| Projected value (24m) | €365k – €738k | €250k – €523k |
| Bargain Index | 59/100 | 28/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Very High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€251k – €771k Model value (performance-implied)€580k – €2.0M Projected value (24 months)€365k – €738k Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€176k – €594k Model value (performance-implied)€338k – €969k Projected value (24 months)€250k – €523k Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Tiago Esgaio and Cláudio Winck
- Esgaio plays in a stronger league (0.58 vs 0.40); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- On value for money the model prefers Esgaio (Bargain Index 59 vs 28) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Esgaio High, Winck Very High.