Tiago Esgaio

The model rates Tiago Esgaio's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2464 (81% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.29

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.26

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

47 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1310

Opponent strength

1319

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€365k – €738k

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 46% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -57% to -29%).

• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

66 (DEF)

Relative output kept

57%–168%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

76%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.