Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Mio Backhaus remove | Elia Caprile remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 24 |
| Position | Goalkeeper | Goalkeeper |
| Club · league | SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | Cagliari Calcio · Serie A |
| League strength | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1378 | 1376 |
| League minutes | 2880 (94%) | 3420 (100%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 62 | 70 |
| Market value | €15.0M | €15.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €10.1M – €28.9M | €11.3M – €22.0M |
| Model value | €2.9M – €17.8M | €4.0M – €14.7M |
| Projected value (24m) | €8.6M – €26.8M | €8.4M – €24.2M |
| Bargain Index | 43/100 | 56/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | 21% | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Low | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€10.1M – €28.9M Model value (performance-implied)€2.9M – €17.8M Projected value (24 months)€8.6M – €26.8M Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€11.3M – €22.0M Model value (performance-implied)€4.0M – €14.7M Projected value (24 months)€8.4M – €24.2M Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Mio Backhaus and Elia Caprile
- Backhaus is 3 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- On value for money the model prefers Caprile (Bargain Index 56 vs 43) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.