Mio Backhaus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mio Backhaus's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-17.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.1M-28.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.6M-26.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €16.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.6M – €26.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -53% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1486 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | GK | 33 | 2881 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1359 | 1066 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Audero Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Alban Lafont Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €11.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Bartłomiej Drągowski Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Marco Sportiello Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Paul Bernardoni Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €10.0M | €17.5M | rose |
| Ionuț Radu Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Gregor Kobel Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €13.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Werder Bremen | Freiburg | €12.0M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Volendam | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 5 Jul 2023 | Werder Bremen | FC Volendam | Free / loan | €300k |
| 12 Jul 2022 | W. Bremen U19 | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | W. Bremen U17 | W. Bremen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | W. Bremen Yth. | W. Bremen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Aachen Yth. | W. Bremen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.