Elia Caprile
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elia Caprile's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-14.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.3M-22.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.4M-24.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3420 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.4M – €24.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -57% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1504 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | GK | 18 | 1620 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1507 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | GK | 4 | 324 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1456 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | GK | 23 | 2070 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1494 | 1388 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €16.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Timo Horn Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Alessio Cragno Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €20.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Juan Musso Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Koen Casteels Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €10.5M | rose |
| Bartłomiej Drągowski Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Yehvann Diouf Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Napoli | Cagliari | €8.2M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Cagliari | Napoli | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 7 Jan 2025 | Napoli | Cagliari | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Empoli | Napoli | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 24 Jul 2023 | Bari | Napoli | €2.2M | €4.0M |
| 24 Jul 2023 | Napoli | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 13 Jul 2022 | Leeds U21 | Bari | €1.8M | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Pro Patria | Leeds United U23 | Free / loan | €275k |
| 7 Aug 2021 | Leeds United U23 | Pro Patria | Free / loan | €200k |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Chievo U19 | Leeds United U23 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Chievo U17 | Chievo U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chievo Youth | Chievo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.