Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Lucas Beltrán remove | Pablo Durán remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 25 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Valencia CF · Laliga | Celta de Vigo · Laliga |
| League strength | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1497 | 1498 |
| League minutes | 1366 (40%) | 1425 (42%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 70 | 59 |
| Market value | €8.0M | €4.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €3.5M – €8.8M | €2.3M – €5.8M |
| Model value | €4.8M – €16.4M | €3.7M – €11.2M |
| Projected value (24m) | €3.0M – €10.2M | €1.8M – €5.7M |
| Bargain Index | 76/100 | 46/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€3.5M – €8.8M Model value (performance-implied)€4.8M – €16.4M Projected value (24 months)€3.0M – €10.2M Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €5.8M Model value (performance-implied)€3.7M – €11.2M Projected value (24 months)€1.8M – €5.7M Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Lucas Beltrán and Pablo Durán
- On value for money the model prefers Beltrán (Bargain Index 76 vs 46) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Beltrán High, Durán Moderate.