Lucas Beltrán
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Beltrán's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-16.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-8.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-10.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (1366 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.6M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1366 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 17)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €10.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; changed club; team strength down (-83 Elo); role change AM -> ST; relative output down 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -71% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1366 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 27 | 1366 | 40% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 1474 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | AM | 33 | 1958 | 57% | 5 | 5 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 1470 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | ST | 32 | 1694 | 50% | 6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 1488 | 1583 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 238 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 269 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krépin Diatta Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Maicón Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.7M | fell |
| Hugo Duro Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Davie Selke Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €8.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Jonathan Ikoné Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jérémie Boga Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €19.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Jefferson Montero Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €5.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Emmanuel Rivière Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Valencia | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Fiorentina | Valencia | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 14 Aug 2023 | River Plate | Fiorentina | €19.7M | €12.0M |
| 27 Jun 2022 | Colon | River Plate | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 15 Jul 2021 | River Plate | Colon | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | River Plate II | River Plate | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | River Plate U20 | River Plate II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Instituto U19 | River Plate U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.