Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Fermín López remove | Arda Güler remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 23 | 21 |
| Position | Attacking midfielder | Attacking midfielder |
| Club · league | FC Barcelona · Laliga | Real Madrid · Laliga |
| League strength | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1787 | 1745 |
| League minutes | 1798 (53%) | 2027 (59%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 97 | 95 |
| Market value | €100M | €90.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €71.8M – €136M | €67.1M – €122M |
| Model value | €42.7M – €83.9M | €37.9M – €80.9M |
| Projected value (24m) | €55.9M – €106M | €56.1M – €120M |
| Bargain Index | 11/100 | 22/100 |
| Development | Moderate | High |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | 5% |
| Risk | Low | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€71.8M – €136M Model value (performance-implied)€42.7M – €83.9M Projected value (24 months)€55.9M – €106M Dashed line: current market value (€100M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€67.1M – €122M Model value (performance-implied)€37.9M – €80.9M Projected value (24 months)€56.1M – €120M Dashed line: current market value (€90.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Fermín López and Arda Güler
- On value for money the model prefers Güler (Bargain Index 22 vs 11) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.