Fermín López
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fermín López's performance-implied value at EUR 42.7M-83.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 71.8M-136.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 55.9M-105.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.09x the positional average in the league (1798 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €104M vs market €100M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1798 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.75
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €55.9M – €106M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; role change CM -> AM; relative output down 34% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -48% to +46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1798 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | AM | 30 | 1798 | 53% | 6 | 9 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 1488 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 28 | 1245 | 36% | 6 | 5 | 0.80 | 0.35 | 1491 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 31 | 1444 | 42% | 8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 1485 | 1723 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 11 | 802 | 6 | 4 | 1596 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 297 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 156 | 1 | 3 | 1613 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 11 | 451 | 1 | 4 | 1649 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 316 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1673 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 8 | 277 | 2 | 1 | 1570 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 151 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1820 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedri Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €100M | €140M | rose |
| Eljif Elmas Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €26.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| James Rodríguez Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €70.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Federico Valverde Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €54.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Jamal Musiala Bundesliga · 2022 | 19 | €65.0M | €120M | rose |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €40.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Arthur Melo Laliga · 2020 | 24 | €56.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Marco Verratti Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €45.0M | €75.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Linares | Barça Atlètic | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Aug 2022 | Barça Atlètic | Linares | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Betis Yth. | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Recreativo Yth. | Real Betis Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.