Arda Güler
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arda Güler's performance-implied value at EUR 37.9M-80.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 67.1M-122.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 56.1M-119.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (2027 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €92.3M vs market €90.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 5% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2027 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 5%
- Resale range (24m)
- €56.1M – €120M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; role change RW -> AM; relative output up 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +17% (IQR -14% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | AM | 33 | 2027 | 59% | 4 | 9 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 1469 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | RW | 28 | 1249 | 37% | 3 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.29 | 1472 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | RW | 10 | 373 | 11% | 6 | 0 | 1.45 | 0.39 | 1458 | 1867 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RW | 20 | 905 | 28% | 4 | 4 | 0.80 | 0.43 | 1280 | 1516 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | AM | 12 | 286 | 8% | 3 | 3 | 1.89 | 0.57 | 1223 | 1422 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 14 | 1030 | 2 | 4 | 1662 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 167 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1776 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 6 | 380 | 2 | 4 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 7 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 6 | 234 | 1 | 1 | 1506 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 3 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 1292 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1371 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedri Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €100M | €140M | rose |
| Jamal Musiala Bundesliga · 2023 | 20 | €110M | €140M | rose |
| Florian Wirtz Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €130M | €100M | fell |
| Nuno Mendes Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €65.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Marco Verratti Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €45.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Federico Valverde Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €54.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Jack Wilshere Premier League · 2014 | 22 | €33.0M | €23.0M | fell |
| Dani Olmo Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €45.0M | €40.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2023 | Fenerbahçe | Real Madrid | €28.0M | €15.0M |
| 13 Jul 2021 | Fenerbahce U19 | Fenerbahçe | Unknown | €100k |
| 13 Jan 2021 | Fenerbahce U16 | Fenerbahce U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Fenerbahce Yth. | Fenerbahce U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Feb 2019 | G.Birligi Yth | Fenerbahce Yth. | €2.5M | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.