Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Hákon Arnar Haraldsson remove | Paul Nebel remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 23 | 23 |
| Position | Attacking midfielder | Attacking midfielder |
| Club · league | LOSC Lille · Ligue 1 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga |
| League strength | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1547 | 1485 |
| League minutes | 2477 (81%) | 2078 (68%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 81 | 79 |
| Market value | €25.0M | €18.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €17.7M – €32.4M | €7.3M – €16.9M |
| Model value | €11.9M – €28.6M | €8.0M – €29.7M |
| Projected value (24m) | €14.7M – €38.3M | €8.5M – €28.0M |
| Bargain Index | 55/100 | 95/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Low | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€17.7M – €32.4M Model value (performance-implied)€11.9M – €28.6M Projected value (24 months)€14.7M – €38.3M Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€7.3M – €16.9M Model value (performance-implied)€8.0M – €29.7M Projected value (24 months)€8.5M – €28.0M Dashed line: current market value (€18.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Hákon Arnar Haraldsson and Paul Nebel
- Nebel is estimated to cost far less (€9.7M vs €24.8M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Nebel (Bargain Index 95 vs 55) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Haraldsson Low, Nebel Moderate.