Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hákon Arnar Haraldsson's performance-implied value at EUR 11.9M-28.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.7M-32.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.7M-38.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (2477 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.8M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2477 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.7M – €38.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -26% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | AM | 32 | 2477 | 81% | 8 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 1475 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | AM | 25 | 1766 | 58% | 5 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 1422 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LW | 26 | 1289 | 42% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1478 | 1552 | 0.87 |
| 2021/22 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LW | 4 | 162 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.21 | 1163 | 1516 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 12 | 747 | 1 | 2 | 1517 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 344 | 0 | 1 | 1598 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 6 | 304 | 2 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1519 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1312 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Fabián Ruiz Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €48.0M | €55.0M | flat |
| Houssem Aouar Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Lucas Paquetá Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €40.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Khéphren Thuram Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Lewis Ferguson Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Marco Benassi Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €13.0M | €11.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2023 | Copenhagen | Lille | €15.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Copenhagen U19 | Copenhagen | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | ÍA Akranes | FCK Youth | €2.8M | Data unavailable |
| 14 Sept 2018 | ÍA U19 | ÍA Akranes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.