Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Gabriel Martinelli remove | Evann Guessand remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 25 |
| Position | Left winger | Right winger |
| Club · league | Arsenal FC · Premier League | Aston Villa · Premier League |
| League strength | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1876 | 1674 |
| League minutes | 1073 (31%) | 916 (27%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 97 | 85 |
| Market value | €45.0M | €25.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €20.6M – €53.1M | €16.1M – €33.5M |
| Model value | €38.3M – €66.3M | €21.0M – €42.3M |
| Projected value (24m) | €19.6M – €53.5M | €15.0M – €31.2M |
| Bargain Index | 66/100 | 32/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€20.6M – €53.1M Model value (performance-implied)€38.3M – €66.3M Projected value (24 months)€19.6M – €53.5M Dashed line: current market value (€45.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€16.1M – €33.5M Model value (performance-implied)€21.0M – €42.3M Projected value (24 months)€15.0M – €31.2M Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Gabriel Martinelli and Evann Guessand
- On value for money the model prefers Martinelli (Bargain Index 66 vs 32) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Martinelli High, Guessand Moderate.