Gabriel Martinelli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Martinelli's performance-implied value at EUR 38.3M-66.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.6M-53.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.6M-53.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (1073 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €27.5M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1073 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1601
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.6M – €53.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; team strength up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +2% (IQR -19% to +34%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1073 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 30 | 1073 | 31% | 1 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 1601 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 33 | 2299 | 67% | 8 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.28 | 1573 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 35 | 2029 | 59% | 6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 1563 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 36 | 2805 | 82% | 15 | 5 | 0.64 | 0.42 | 1561 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 29 | 1867 | 55% | 6 | 6 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 1568 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 14 | 586 | 17% | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.32 | 1495 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 14 | 656 | 19% | 3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 1613 | 1641 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 13 | 661 | 6 | 2 | 1607 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 4 | 352 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 13 | 937 | 2 | 2 | 1705 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 484 | 2 | 1 | 1633 |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 493 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 114 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 424 | 3 | 3 | 1501 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 203 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €75.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Paco Alcácer Laliga · 2017 | 24 | €18.0M | €37.0M | rose |
| Ferran Torres Premier League · 2021 | 21 | €50.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Jesus Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €70.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Darwin Núñez Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €65.0M | €45.0M | fell |
| Douglas Costa Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €30.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Bernardo Silva Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €50.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Diogo Jota Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €45.0M | €50.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2019 | Ituano | Arsenal | €7.1M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Ituano U20 | Ituano | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.