Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Hugo Félix remove | Egor Smelov remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 21 |
| Position | Attacking midfielder | Attacking midfielder |
| Club · league | CD Tondela · Liga Portugal | FK Nizhny Novgorod · Premier Liga |
| League strength | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1194 | 1180 |
| League minutes | 1335 (44%) | 941 (35%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 8 | 11 |
| Market value | €800k | €750k |
| Estimated acquisition | €284k – €947k | €310k – €1.1M |
| Model value | €355k – €687k | €350k – €730k |
| Projected value (24m) | €510k – €1.8M | €398k – €1.9M |
| Bargain Index | 78/100 | 99/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | 12% | 17% |
| Risk | High | Very High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€284k – €947k Model value (performance-implied)€355k – €687k Projected value (24 months)€510k – €1.8M Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€310k – €1.1M Model value (performance-implied)€350k – €730k Projected value (24 months)€398k – €1.9M Dashed line: current market value (€750k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Hugo Félix and Egor Smelov
- Smelov is estimated to cost far less (€413k vs €670k mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Smelov (Bargain Index 99 vs 78) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Félix High, Smelov Very High.