Egor Smelov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Egor Smelov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (941 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €413k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 941 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1180
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €398k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +34% (IQR -33% to +208%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 941 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | AM | 14 | 926 | 34% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 1324 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 2 | 15 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1470 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 2 | 106 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1160 | 1445 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 3 | 213 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 3 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Habib Keïta Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €650k | €1.5M | rose |
| Nathan Bitumazala Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Matthias Verreth Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 22 | €575k | €400k | fell |
| Gary Magnée Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €400k | €1.2M | rose |
| Mykola Matvienko Premier Liga · 2017 | 21 | €800k | €3.0M | rose |
| Noah Naujoks Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €450k | €1.5M | rose |
| Luquinha Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Kenneth Houdret Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €450k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Pari NN | Dynamo Moscow | Free / loan | €750k |
| 9 Sept 2025 | Dynamo Moscow | Pari NN | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Dynamo 2 | Dynamo Moscow | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ak. Dinamo U16 | Dynamo 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 17 Jul 2021 | SShOR Zenit U16 | Ak. Dinamo U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.