Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Evanilson remove | Igor Jesus remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 25 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | AFC Bournemouth · Premier League | Nottingham Forest · Premier League |
| League strength | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1643 | 1635 |
| League minutes | 2762 (81%) | 2315 (68%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 96 | 90 |
| Market value | €35.0M | €25.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €24.6M – €50.4M | €18.8M – €36.5M |
| Model value | €28.7M – €50.4M | €13.9M – €61.3M |
| Projected value (24m) | €17.3M – €36.6M | €16.7M – €43.6M |
| Bargain Index | 15/100 | 55/100 |
| Development | Low | Moderate |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Low | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€24.6M – €50.4M Model value (performance-implied)€28.7M – €50.4M Projected value (24 months)€17.3M – €36.6M Dashed line: current market value (€35.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€18.8M – €36.5M Model value (performance-implied)€13.9M – €61.3M Projected value (24 months)€16.7M – €43.6M Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Evanilson and Igor Jesus
- Jesus has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.46 vs 0.36 per 90).
- On value for money the model prefers Jesus (Bargain Index 55 vs 15) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.