Igor Jesus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Jesus's performance-implied value at EUR 13.9M-61.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.8M-36.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.7M-43.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (2315 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €27.9M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2315 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1614
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.7M – €43.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -51% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 37 | 2315 | 68% | 6 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 1614 | 1635 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 13 | 796 | 7 | 1 | 1574 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saïd Benrahma Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Erik Lamela Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €24.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Neal Maupay Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Pablo Sarabia Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Youssef En-Nesyri Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Dejan Kulusevski Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Giovani dos Santos Laliga · 2014 | 25 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Nicola Sansone Laliga · 2017 | 26 | €16.0M | €7.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Botafogo | Nott'm Forest | €19.0M | €15.0M |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Shabab Al-Ahli | Botafogo | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Coritiba FC | Shabab Al-Ahli | €2.0M | €950k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Coritiba U20 | Coritiba FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.