Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Igor Thiago remove | Dominic Calvert-Lewin remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 29 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Brentford FC · Premier League | Leeds United · Premier League |
| League strength | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1612 | 1521 |
| League minutes | 3287 (96%) | 2730 (80%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 94 | 94 |
| Market value | €65.0M | €22.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €49.8M – €94.8M | €13.7M – €29.8M |
| Model value | €18.4M – €46.7M | €17.4M – €33.8M |
| Projected value (24m) | €35.3M – €93.1M | €7.0M – €14.4M |
| Bargain Index | 18/100 | 0/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Low | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€49.8M – €94.8M Model value (performance-implied)€18.4M – €46.7M Projected value (24 months)€35.3M – €93.1M Dashed line: current market value (€65.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€13.7M – €29.8M Model value (performance-implied)€17.4M – €33.8M Projected value (24 months)€7.0M – €14.4M Dashed line: current market value (€22.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Igor Thiago and Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- Thiago is 4 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Calvert-Lewin has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.65 vs 0.57 per 90).
- Thiago was used far more by the club (96% of minutes vs 80%).
- Calvert-Lewin is estimated to cost far less (€20.9M vs €72.3M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Thiago (Bargain Index 18 vs 0) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.