Igor Thiago
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Thiago's performance-implied value at EUR 18.4M-46.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 49.8M-94.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 35.3M-93.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (3287 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €72.3M vs market €65.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3287 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1594
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €35.3M – €93.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -32% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | ST | 38 | 3287 | 96% | 22 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 1594 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | ST | 8 | 169 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1554 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 26 | 1847 | 68% | 16 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.60 | 1370 | 1541 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 120 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 356 | 2 | 1 | 1399 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €30.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Felipe Anderson Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €40.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Marcus Rashford Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €80.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Raúl Jiménez Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €35.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Adama Traoré Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €25.5M | €20.0M | fell |
| Savinho Laliga · 2024 | 20 | €50.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Christian Pulisic Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Michael Olise Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €38.0M | €100M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Club Brugge | Brentford | €33.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ludogorets | Club Brugge | €11.0M | €4.0M |
| 28 Feb 2022 | Cruzeiro | Ludogorets | €1.3M | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Cruzeiro U20 | Cruzeiro | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Vere FC | Cruzeiro U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.