Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Adrian Blake remove | Joelson Fernandes remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 20 | 23 |
| Position | Left winger | Left winger |
| Club · league | FC Utrecht · Eredivisie | Gil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal |
| League strength | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1352 | 1303 |
| League minutes | 971 (32%) | 1013 (33%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 25 | 24 |
| Market value | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €1.0M – €3.4M | €405k – €1.4M |
| Model value | €545k – €2.9M | €560k – €1.1M |
| Projected value (24m) | €1.2M – €6.4M | €608k – €2.1M |
| Bargain Index | 99/100 | 74/100 |
| Development | High | Low |
| Breakout probability | 33% | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Very High | Very High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €3.4M Model value (performance-implied)€545k – €2.9M Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €6.4M Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€405k – €1.4M Model value (performance-implied)€560k – €1.1M Projected value (24 months)€608k – €2.1M Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Adrian Blake and Joelson Fernandes
- Blake is 2 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Fernandes has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.42 vs 0.33 per 90).
- Fernandes is estimated to cost far less (€811k vs €1.4M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Blake (Bargain Index 99 vs 74) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.