Adrian Blake
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrian Blake's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-6.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (971 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 21 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 33% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 971 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1283
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 33%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €6.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -38% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 971 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LW | 23 | 971 | 32% | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 1283 | 1352 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LW | 17 | 457 | 15% | 3 | 2 | 0.98 | 0.46 | 1241 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LW | 5 | 25 | 1% | 1 | 1 | 7.20 | 0.58 | 1387 | 1354 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 6 | 386 | 1 | 0 | 1342 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Utrecht | 7 | 296 | 1 | 0 | 1445 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 72 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Jensen Superliga · 2021 | 21 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Youssouph Badji Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ibrahim Sadiq Superliga · 2020 | 20 | €625k | €600k | flat |
| Jordhy Thompson Premier Liga · 2024 | 20 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Igor Vetokele Superliga · 2013 | 21 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Abdoul Tapsoba Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| James Wilson Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 24 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Idrissa Sylla Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Utrecht U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €500k |
| 15 Jul 2023 | Watford U18 | Utrecht U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.