Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Luc De Fougerolles remove | Lukas Willen remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 20 | 23 |
| Position | Centre-back | Centre-back |
| Club · league | FCV Dender EH · Jupiler Pro League | Zulte Waregem · Jupiler Pro League |
| League strength | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1207 | 1228 |
| League minutes | 1460 (54%) | 1055 (39%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 9 | 8 |
| Market value | €1.0M | €600k |
| Estimated acquisition | €582k – €3.6M | €209k – €891k |
| Model value | €376k – €1.7M | €370k – €1.0M |
| Projected value (24m) | €632k – €4.0M | €327k – €1.1M |
| Bargain Index | 57/100 | 66/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Low |
| Breakout probability | 21% | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€582k – €3.6M Model value (performance-implied)€376k – €1.7M Projected value (24 months)€632k – €4.0M Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€209k – €891k Model value (performance-implied)€370k – €1.0M Projected value (24 months)€327k – €1.1M Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Luc De Fougerolles and Lukas Willen
- Fougerolles is 2 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Fougerolles was used far more by the club (54% of minutes vs 39%).
- Willen is estimated to cost far less (€533k vs €1.2M mid-estimate).