Lukas Willen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lukas Willen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €533k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1055 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1228
- Opponent strength
- 1404
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €327k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -32% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1055 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 14 | 1055 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1404 | 1228 | 0.65 |
| 2022/23 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 19 | 1416 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1289 | 1200 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | Zulte Waregem | 6 | 386 | 0 | 0 | 1257 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pinto Liga Portugal · 2020 | 22 | €725k | €550k | fell |
| Hugo Basto Liga Portugal · 2015 | 22 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Damien Dussaut Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Gijs Smal Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €600k | €6.0M | rose |
| Aleksey Gritsaenko Premier Liga · 2019 | 24 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Tomislav Glumac Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Andriy Sakhnevych Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Tomás Silva Liga Portugal · 2023 | 24 | €400k | €600k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Zulte Waregem | Without Club | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Jong Essevee | Zulte Waregem | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Club Brugge U18 | SVZW U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Club Brugge Yth | Club Brugge U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Deinze Yth. | Club Brugge Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.