Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Steve Ngoura remove | Gustavo Varela remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 21 | 21 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League | Gil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal |
| League strength | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1325 | 1303 |
| League minutes | 1831 (68%) | 1522 (50%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 31 | 26 |
| Market value | €5.0M | €3.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €3.8M – €11.0M | €2.0M – €5.8M |
| Model value | €1.2M – €5.5M | €459k – €2.2M |
| Projected value (24m) | €2.6M – €14.1M | €1.8M – €8.4M |
| Bargain Index | 43/100 | 61/100 |
| Development | High | High |
| Breakout probability | 37% | 34% |
| Risk | Moderate | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€3.8M – €11.0M Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €5.5M Projected value (24 months)€2.6M – €14.1M Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€2.0M – €5.8M Model value (performance-implied)€459k – €2.2M Projected value (24 months)€1.8M – €8.4M Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Steve Ngoura and Gustavo Varela
- Ngoura was used far more by the club (68% of minutes vs 50%).
- Varela is estimated to cost far less (€3.3M vs €6.7M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Varela (Bargain Index 61 vs 43) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Ngoura Moderate, Varela High.